By Ph.D. Rob Johnston
Identifies and describes stipulations and variables that negatively have an effect on intelligence research. Investigates analytic tradition, technique, mistakes, and failure in the Intelligence group. makes use of an utilized anthropological method that comes with interviews, direct and player statement, and concentration teams. features a bibliography.
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Additional resources for Analytic Culture in the United States Intelligence Community: An Ethnographic Study
Eric Wolf 13 Time constraints affect both the general analytic production cycle and analytic methodology by contributing to and exacerbating cognitive biases. Although there are any number of cognitive biases to which the human mind is susceptible, one in particular became evident during the triangulation phase and interpretive analysis of the interview and observation data of this study. The cognitive bias identified most often was confirmation bias, which is the tendency of individuals to select evidence that supports rather than refutes a given hypothesis.
The Problem of Bias Although a researcher might pretend to be neutral and unbiased in presenting his findings and conclusions, personal biases can creep into a finished product. The methods ethnographers employ to collect raw data and the use of interpretational analysis to extract meaning and generate theory virtually guarantee it. In my view, one should be candid about this possibility. I noted in Chapter One that ethnographers bring a certain amount of experiential baggage to their work, myself included.
These steps do not suggest that any specific scientific methodology results in what is ultimately the truth, rather that scientific methods are merely formal processes used to describe phenomena, make predictions, and determine which hypothesis best explains those phenomena. The principal value of any type of methodological formalism is that it allows other researchers to test the validity and reliability of the findings of any other researcher by making explicit, and therefore replicable, the means by which anyone reaches a specific conclusion.
Analytic Culture in the United States Intelligence Community: An Ethnographic Study by Ph.D. Rob Johnston